Analysis on iPhone 3G in Singapore

[My first attempt of writing a blog post in a more professional collumn-style post. Pardon me if it's too formal.]

So, we know iPhone 3G is coming to Singapore. We all learnt that from the WWDC 2008 keynote, which later echoed in the blogosphere. But there's some unanswered questions. And so, being the Apple fan-boy Singapore resident that I am, I shall try to guess the answers to these unanswered questions.

1. When can we get one?
The flat-out answer is 'probably not July 11'. And there are several reasons for this.

Firstly, there is probably not enough iPhones being produced for release on 11 July for 20 countries. [That's not a typo. 2 of the original 22 initial nations had to delay their release]. Also, There Singtel side is probably not prepared to bring them in as well, especially since they're still contemplating about when to start selling in Singapore. I also suspect that their online "pre-reservation" programme is to get a clearer estimation of the demand in Singapore for this gizmo. Either way, both Apple (or Foxconn, whoever produces the phones) and Singtel need more time.

Secondly, there's the IDA approval. Just like iPhone version 1 needed 5 months from the time it was announced to the time it was available to consumers, the iPhone 3G has to go through government agency approvals before it could enter certain markets. For Singapore, the IDA (Infocomm Development Agency) has to approve the equipment before it could be sold in Singapore. In fact if you go to the IDA's Approved Equipment Search , and search for "Apple" under the brand name, you'll notice that everything Apple sells which has a Bluetooth, Wifi, or any other wireless communication method, from the Nike+ accesory to the Apple TV, need to be approved by IDA first before it can be sold here. Do the same for Nokia, and you'll realise that this ruling applies to Nokia as well. As a result, we may need to wait 3 weeks from the time the first actual-production unit (not pre-production units) reaches IDA offices before we can get an iPhone. Until then, keep checking IDA's Approved Equipment Lists.

Thirdly, and this is just speculation in addition to the first point, Singtel could still be setting up their infrastructure to support the flood of iPhones coming. They need to prepare their wireless broadband HSDPA network to support all the iPhones which have to keep a constant connection with Apple. Also, they need to set up the Visual Voicemail back-ends.

Having said the above 3 reasons, I conclude that the release dat for Singapore will be the days before National Day, meaning 1 - 8 August 2008.

UPDATE: someone gave me a hint that the hello! store people said "September"!

2. How can I get one?

This one's pretty straightforward. From what we've seen so far, you may not be able to get an iPhone from the iShop or Epicentre on release day. That said, these places could still get the iPhone, just a little later, when supply and demand are more balanced.

Outside Singapore, the iPhone is only available through the Apple Store (the ones with the Genius Bars, not the "authorised retailers" that Singapore has)

Apple Store Online says hello! Stores, so I'm going with that. No other ways.

3. Plans?

The iPhone will NOT have a prepaid plan, mainly because Singtel never gives High-speed data services with their prepaid cards. Singtel will probably bundle unlimited data for all the plans, since the iPhones will always stay connected to Apple. This is out of the norm for Singtel which caps their mobile broadband plans at 50GB.

Doing some math, you can sum up the price plan to be something like this

Data plan: $22 to $62 (based on current data plan prices)

+

a voice plan, ranging from the iOne SuperValue ($15, 80min, 50sms), to the iThree Plus ($192.60, 2000min, 2000sms)

+

Visual Voicemail

The range (excluding visual voicemail) ends up being $37 to $254.60 per month.

For an average person like myself, the best would probably be

Broadband on Mobile 1000 (1Mbps DL, 384kbps UL, 50GB, $22.42)

+

iOne Plus ($25.68, 100min, 500sms)

+

Visual Voicemail (probably +$5 over Voicemail, complimentary in iOne Plus)

= $52.42 PER MONTH.

Can you swallow that?

3. Other Telcos?

Let's just get this straight: Singtel cannot release their phones exclusive to themselves. I posted the relevant laws in an earlier post some time ago. As such, it won't be a surprise when Starhub and M1 gets the phone.

In fact, it's not a surprise if M1 gets the phone. They should have. After all, to quote wikipedia:

"M1 offers Vodafone products, a result of it being the official Singaporean partner of the Vodafone mobile community."

And since Vodafone has sealed a deal with Apple, you would expect M1 to also get the iPhone, before Singtel, right?

And as for Starhub, they have the highest 3.5G network speeds in Singapore, which makes them a viable party in this 3-way race to get the iPhone.

4. Any special extras?

Activation: probably have to be done in-store at the hello! stores, since we don't have iTunes Store Singapore to activate our iPhones on. But one plus point: MobileMe / iTunes account is not a must.

iTunes Store Singapore + iTunes Wifi Music Store: Probably not coming yet.

Apple Store Singapore: Also a distant future, the way I see it.

iPhone App Store: I'm guessing you'll need a MobileMe username and a valid credit card to use this feature.

Roaming / Data Roaming: BridgeAlliance Data Roaming plan from Singtel. Not cheap, but that's the only way to go.

5. How could I forget: Price!

The question here is about subsidy. We know the 8GB costs US$199 (S$273) on AT&T, £0 on O2 with certain plans, and EU499 (S$1000) somewhere in Europe.

Based on these numbers, I am going out on a limb by saying that the iPhone will launch at S$799 (8GB) and S$850 (16GB) and then drop over time.

We'll see how right (or wrong) I am!