A New Government?

Well, looks like things are really shaking up in the UK today.

First, there's the speculation that the Tories and Lib-dems will announce a coalition by today.

Then, no.

If it becomes clear that the national interest, which is stable and principled government, can be best served by forming a coalition between the Labour party and the Liberal Democrats, then I believe I should discharge that duty to form that government which would in my view command a majority in the House of Commons in the Queen's speech and any other confidence votes.

But I have no desire to stay in my position longer than is needed to ensure the path to economic growth is ensured and the process of political reform we have agreed moves forward quickly. The reason that we have a hung parliament is that no single party and no single leader was able to win the full support of the country. As leader of my party, I must accept that that is a judgment on me. I therefore intend to ask the Labour party to set in train the processes needed for its own leadership election. I would hope that it would be completed in time for the new leader to be in post by the time of the Labour party conference. I will play no part in that contest and I will back no individual candidate.

--Gordon Brown, in a speech outside 10 Downing Street

Gordon Brown announced he was going to resign as PM and Labour Party Leader before the next Party Conference in the Autumn. Meaning? New PM, new Labour leader. Something almost everyone seems to be happy about - the Electorates, the Lib Dems, the Plaid Leader, the former Labour MPs/candidates, etc.

Gordon Brown has taken a difficult personal decision in the national interest. And I think without prejudice to the talks that will now happen between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, Gordon Brown's decision is an important element which could help ensure a smooth transition to the stable government that everyone deserves.

--A Statement form Nick Clegg via Lib Dem HQ

Gordon Brown has done the decent thing following the overwhelming rejection of his premiership last Thursday. It was clear that he had no mandate from the people to maintain his position in Downing Street, and he has now shown that he has heard that message loud and clear. Mr Brown's announcement is a signal to other progressive parties that Labour is willing to talk in order to explore the possibility of establishing a progressive alliance to govern in Westminster.

Elfyn Llwyd, Plaid Cymru Leader in Westminster

Then, Nick Clegg released a Press Release saying he's not happy with how talks are going with the Tory representatives, so he's going to talk with Labour.

Over the past four days we have been working flat-out to deliver an agreement that can provide stable government that can last. The talks with the Conservatives have been very constructive and I am grateful to David Cameron and his team for the effort they have put in. But so far we have been unable to agree a comprehensive partnership agreement for a full parliament.

We need a government that lasts, which is why we believe, in the light of the state of talks with the Conservative party, the only responsible thing to do is to open discussions with the Labour party to secure a stable partnership agreement. We will of course continue our discussions with the Conservative party to see if we can find a way to a full agreement.

--A Statement form Nick Clegg via Lib Dem HQ

So, it appears like we might have a Lab-Lib-SNP-Plaid-SDLP-Alliance-Green Coalition, if one analyst is to be believed...

For reference, here are the numbers.

There are 650 seats in the Commons. But there are five Sinn Féin MPs who do not take their seats, leaving 645 MPs. So to get a working majority you would need 323 votes.

There are 258 Labour MPs and 57 Lib Dem MPs. That makes 315. The SDLP (a sister party of Labour's) has three MPs and there is one MP who represents the Alliance (which is allied to the Lib Dems). If you add them, you get to 319. Plaid Cymru is in coalition with Labour in Wales. They've got three MPs, and if they join the total rises to 322. The SNP has also signalled its willingness to join a progressive pact of some kind, and its six MPs would take that total to 328. If the Greens' Caroline Lucas were to vote with this bloc, that would take you to 329.

The Tories have 306 seats. (One is the Speaker, but two Labour MPs – and another Tory – are likely to become deputy Speakers, and so they cancel each other out.) When the contest in Thirsk takes place, that is likely to rise to 307. If the Democratic Unionists (eight MPs) were to vote with the Tories (as they normally do), the Tory-DUP total would rise to 315.

Gordon Brown is right to say that the "progressives" could form a majority. But they would be dependent on several small parties and they would not have much of a cushion for when people started to rebel.

All I can say is that things are getting interesting, and possibly a bit heated, judging from the Tory response as delivered by William J Hague,

That is the choice that they will now have to make ... We are absolutely convinced that we should not have another unelected prime minster and we should not change our voting system without a referendum... Under the Tory plans, Tories would be free to campaign against AV in a referendum.

--William Hague, during a Conservative Press Conference

Thanks to The Guardian's Andrew Sparrow's Election Live Blog for all the excerpts. Link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/may/10/general-election-2010-live-blog

Hope they wouldn't mind me condensing their material before they get swept under continuous updates!