Tuesday 24 March 2009

My analysis on all things Apple in 2009.

Every so often, I write a list of predictions on what Apple Inc. will do, based on analyzing their past product releases and currently-circulating rumours.

With so much going on at Apple, I thought I could write what's on my mind about Apple. Let's start with the market that defined Apple even before the iPod did - The Mac.

The Mac
When we talk about the Mac, note that we have to talk about two separate things - Hardware and Software. 

Hardware-wise, we just saw the entire desktop line-up being refreshed recently. So, judging from Intel's chip roadmap, nobody would expect further updates to the desktop hardware line-up. As for the laptops, Intel has Calpella due in late 2009 - the laptop version of the Core-i7. So, post-WWDC, probably September.

Software-wise, it's no secret that Apple is working on an update to Leopard (10.5.7, codenamed Juno) and an upgrade to Leopard (10.6). 10.5.7 should be released whenever it is released (probably next month, April 2009). We don't know if there'll be any more updates to 10.5, but my guess is that there'll be one last one (10.5.8) before 10.6 is released, and another update (10.5.9) after 10.6 has been available for a while to keep things stable. My prediction for Snow Leopard? Its release date should be announced at WWDC2009 in June, and the full release in July, so as to not collide with something else (see below).


The iPod
Nothing exciting going on here, seeing how the only people still buying iPods are those who are getting gifts for someone. Seriously, would you buy an iPod for yourself in the right mind? My guess is no, unless your current one is spoilt, or you never had one before, or if you suddenly started running (erherm). 

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that there'll probably be something iPod-related in September - November, just before the holidays. Although strangely, the iPod shuffle got an update this month out of the blue. Is Apple breaking the trend? My guess is that this Shuffle had some problems during the development, and was hence late to the release as compared to the rest of the family. Either that or the 2nd gen shuffle was holding up in shelves.

The iPhone
Same as the Mac - there's software, and there's hardware. We can safely say Apple will probably give a preview of a new software version every March, release in June, and update hardware by announcing in June, and releasing in July-December in a phase-by-phase rolling release. Since iPhones are sold on contracts tied to a carrier, mostly for 2 years, Apple has to release a new iPhone for those people who have an ending contract and are in the market for a new one. In June 2007, Apple released the first-gen iPhone in the US. This was followed by the UK and certain European countries in the following months. Apple must release something new to lasso these people back to the respective carriers, especially those who didn't upgrade their iPhones to the 3G last year. So, expect new hardware this June-December, depending on where you live.

The Hobbies and newbies?
Apple TV is described as a "hobby" of Apple's. Nothing new in this space, as far as I can see. 

Aside from that, rumours have been flying about a 10" touchscreen device, possibly a tablet-cum-netbook. I don't know how this will be sold, and what it'll be called, but my guess is that it'll be like the Axiotron ModBooks sans the stylus. It'll have a headphone jack, HSDPA + wifi built-in, and a 30-pin dock connector. Sounds like an enlarged iPhone 3G? yep.

Rumours have also pointed out that AT&T are talking about a $99 netbook, but not running Windows. So, it's either Linux, or OS X. I'm guessing OS X. The rumour also states a product release in "Summer", meaning June - August.


So, to round up, here's a projected timeline...

March: 
iPhone OS 3 preview announcement done.

April: 
iTunes Music goes 100% DRM-free, new pricing tiers.
OS X 10.5.7
New Final Cut Pro around NAB.

June: 
Steve Jobs returns from medical leave of absence.
WWDC
Announcements of iPhone v3 hardware, netbook/tablet, Snow Leopard
Release of iPhone 3.0 software
Release of iPhone 3 hardware (rolling release, starting in US)

July:
Release of Snow Leopard

August:
Release of netbook/tablet. (rolling release, starting in US. Tied to iPhone partner carrier)

September:
New iPod line-up

October:
New Laptops

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